Understanding the Economy

Economic news supplements and videos to accompany 'Economics:The Basics' by Michael Mandel

Number of the Week: The Price of Televisions

Posted by Mike Mandel on December 17, 2009

At 8:30 this morning, the hard-working statisticians at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington issued their report on consumer prices in November 2009. It showed that the average price of consumer goods and services rose by 1.8% between November 2008 and November 2009. That’s the inflation rate.

But what about the price of individual items–like televisions, say? According to the BLS, the average price of televisions has actually plummeted by 28% over the last year, even while all sorts of other goods and services have been increasing in price. So that giant flat screen TV that you’ve been wanting–much, much cheaper.

In fact, the price of TVs has been falling for years. In 2006, the average price of a 23-inch LCD TV was $752, according to research firm iSuppli. Today, at the end of 2009, the average price of a 23-inch LCD set is $451. That’s a big drop!

Now, the BLS has been tracking the price of TVs since the 1950s and 1960s. Here’s a chart of the price of televisions over the last 40 years.

This chart shows that the price of televisions was basically flat until the early 1980s. It may be no coincidence that prices started to drop right even as imports of televisions were soaring.

Posted in Chapter 14, Chapter 8 | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Number of the Week: Rents Finally Start Falling

Posted by Mike Mandel on August 24, 2009

If you own your own home, my sympathies—it’s tough to be you these days. Your house is probably worth 30-40% less than a few years ago. Your real estate taxes are likely going up, there’s a big ‘foreclosed’ sign on the house across the street, and you can’t sell your house even if you want to.

But suppose you are a tenant, part of one of those 35 million household who pay rent each month to landlords. Guess what? Good news for you–average rents in urban areas actually went down in July, for the first time in recent record (chart). That’s according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government agency in charge of tracking all prices in the U.S.

Rent inflation, at annual rates

Rent inflation, at annual rates

Now, the monthly decline was very small, only -0.03%. If rents continue to fall at the same rate for a year, that would total up to a -0.4% decline To put it another way, if you are paying $1000 a month for the crummy one-bedroom apartment, this decline means that you might end up paying $4 less each month…not much of a change.

But even small declines matter, especially since renters tend to be young, or poor, or both.. About 40% of renters are under the age of 35, for example, making every penny count.

Actually, the real surprise is how long it took for rents to start dropping. Home prices hit their peak in mid-2006 and since then have fallen more than 30%. By comparison, averager rents for tenants have increased roughly 10% over the same stretch. Part of the reason is that most apartment leases are signed for a year or more, which may include some increases already built into the agreement. These help push up the average rent.

But there are demand and supply factors which have also kept rents rising. When the housing bust hit, home mortgages became harder to get. Lenders tightened up, requiring bigger downpayments. And many people lost their homes because they couldn’t pay their mortgages.

As a result, quite a few people who would have wanted to buy homes were forced into the rental market. In effect, the demand curve for rental housing may have shifted to the right. This kept rents rising, and the number of renters going up. For example, over the past year, the number of renters rose by about 1 million, even as the number of homeowners fell (chart).

rent_6023_image001

In addition, real estate developers have been mostly focused on building homes for sale, not for rent. Over the past year, there were roughly 960,000 new housing units completed, according to the Census Bureau. Out of those, about 520,000 were intended for sale, and only 440,000 intended for rent—not enough to keep up with all the new renters.

Now, eventually the market takes care of this imbalance. Renters start buying cheap houses. Owners of homes that they cannot sell start renting them instead. And builders start putting up apartment houses rather than giant one-family mansions.

How long and how far will rents drop? There’s no way to tell right now—but this is a darn good time to be a tenant.

Posted in Chapter 03, Chapter 10 | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Exchange Rates: Foreign Tourists Go Shopping In New York City

Posted by Damian on August 19, 2009

On almost any afternoon, you can find hundreds of foreign shoppers at the Macy’s store in Herald Square, Manhattan, a commercial hub for international travelers.

“It’s mostly foreigners that come to shop here,” said Erin, a young sales representative for Calvin Klein.

For many people living in Western Europe and Japan — among other developed countries outside of North America — a Lacoste t-shirt or a pair of designer jeans costs less than it would in their home countries.

That’s because over the last few years, the value of the dollar has fallen against both the Japanese yen and the euro (which is the currency of 16 countries in Europe). As a result, foreign tourists have found shopping in the U.S. to be increasingly attractive.

“These days it’s beneficial for most Europeans to come and shop here,” said Mika Malinen, a Finnish traveler who was shopping on a weekday afternoon with two friends from his home country. “We can get a lot more stuff here than we would back home.”

“If I go shopping in Finland and buy a pair of Calvin Klein jeans, it can easily cost 70 or 80 Euros,” he added. “Here I just paid $30, which is equal to about 20 Euros.”

How does this work? In mid-August, 2009, one euro could be converted into roughly $1.43 U.S. dollars. That’s why a pair of $30 jeans would cost 20 euros (actually, to be exact, it would cost $20.97, or $30 divided by 1.43).

But back in the summer of 2005, the euro-dollar exchange rate was closer at 1.20 dollars per euro, so that same $30 pair of jeans would cost 25 euros. And if we go back to 2002, the euro-dollar exchange rate was roughly 1, making it even more expensive for a European tourist to shop in the U.S. Finland is one of the countries which uses the euro as its currency.

Japanese tourists are also enjoying the benefits of the same decline in the value of the dollar. For example, the yen-dollar exchange rate in the summer of 2007 was roughly 122 yen per dollar, so that a $30 pair of jeans would cost 3,660 yen ($30 times 122 yen). By comparison, in mid-August 2009, the yen-dollar exchange rate had dropped to 95, so that the same pair of jeans would cost only 2,850 yen.

With Americans cutting back, Macy’s has made an extra effort to attract international tourists, even from countries where the currency has not changed much against the dollar. The department store chain offers international visitors a discount card, which cuts 11% off the cost of purchases. The card is good for 30 days, which is a lot of shopping. (Surprise: Domestic travelers can also get a discount card from Macy’s, but it’s only good for 5 days).

“Because of the discount, I am able to save money,” said Arvinder Singh, a traveler from India who was checking the $70 price tag on a collared Guess shirt. “At home this shirt would normally cost about 3,500 rupees, but now I get it for less.” (The exchange rate is roughly 50 rupees to the dollar).

Are there any exceptions? Tourists from Great Britain are taking it on the chin. The British pound has dropped against the dollar, making traveling and shopping in the U.S. more expensive for British tourists.

Reported and written by Damian Ghigliotty (8/12/09)

Posted in Chapter 14 | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Number of the Week: Unemployment Rate for Young College Graduates

Posted by Mike Mandel on August 14, 2009

If you are a young college grad looking for a job, it’s tough out there. But how bad is it, really?

Bad—but not as bad as it could be. That may be cold comfort if you have been hunting through want ads and redoing your resume for the 20th time. The numbers, though, don’t lie.

In June 2009, the unemployment rate for young college graduates was 7.3%. By comparison, the unemployment rate for young high school graduates with no college was 16.3%, more than twice as high.*  Education pays—not just in better wages, but in a lower likelihood of unemployment, even in these tough times.

What do these numbers mean? By ‘young college graduates’, we mean all U.S. residents who are 20-29 and have finished a bachelor’s degree.  ‘Young high school graduates with no college” includes all U.S. residents who are 20-29, have finished high school, but have not started college.

The government’s monthly survey puts these people into three categories: Working; actively looking for a job; and not looking for work (no, “laying on the beach until the sun goes down” is not an acceptable answer).  You are “in the labor force” if you fall into one of the first two categories—either already employed, or actively searching for one.

The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force who don’t have jobs, but are actively searching.  So in June 2009, 7.3% of the young college-educated labor force was unemployed. 

One way to think of this number:  If you draw a card randomly out of a deck of cards, the chances of you pulling an ace is slightly bigger than  7.3% (actually it’s 1 out of 13, which is 7.7%).  Take a deck of cards and pick a card—if you get an ace, you are unemployed. Otherwise you have a job.

Now,  don’t get me wrong. The labor market for young college graduates is a lot worse than previous years. For example, in June 2007, before the recession started, the unemployment rate for young college graduates was only 4.1%. That’s a big difference from today.

Still, when it comes to finding a job, it’s still better to have a college degree.

 

*Not seasonally adjusted.  These results come from the author’s tabulations of the June 2009 Current Population Survey. They are consistent with published data.

Posted in Chapter 10, Chapter 16 | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Videos!

Posted by Mike Mandel on August 5, 2009

You will see that we have added economic videos–plural. The two first topics are:

The Economics of a Hip Hop Artist (which covers opportunity cost.)

The Economics of a Subway Fare Hike (which covers elasticity of demand.)

Each topic has two videos and a written piece. The first video is fun and accessible, without any economic jargon.  The  second video breaks down the first video, and shows where the economic concepts come in. Tell us what you think.

We have another topic in the pipeline–banking, featuring the CEO of a major bank explaining how to do banking the right way! Coming soon!

Posted in Updates | Leave a Comment »

The Economics of a Subway Fare Hike

Posted by Damian on July 2, 2009

Dylan Rogers, a 29-year-old Jeweler from South Carolina, has become frustrated with the cost of living in New York City. As a commuter who travels over 10 miles from Brooklyn to Manhattan and back on a regular basis, Dylan spends several hundred dollars a year on the subway alone — more than most people living in other parts of the country pay for gas.

So, when the government agency that runs the city’s subways and buses — The MTA — proposed raising the price of a single ride from $2.00 to $2.50 in March 2009, Dylan considered moving elsewhere.

“I understand they need to make money to keep the trains moving,” he says. “But it really affects middle-class workers like myself. We’re what drives New York.”

The 44-year-old Metropolitan Transportation Authority announced its proposal as the best way to cover a $1.2 billion deficit from rising maintenance costs. But after hearing the complaints of commuters throughout the city, the agency scaled the fare hike down from $2.50 to $2.25, which went into effect on June 28, 2009.

In New York City, 7.4 million people use public transportation on an average weekday. That 12.5% increase in the price of a single subway or bus ride will still cost the majority of commuters at least $100 dollars more each year.

“On average I take about 10 round trips a week on the subway,” says Grady Walker, a 30-year-old musician who travels all around the city for rehearsals and gigs. At that rate, the new fare will cost him an additional $2.50 a week.

And with other costs of living going up at the same time, many subway riders like Dylan and Grady have begun to weigh the price of public transportation against the alternatives: walking, driving, spending more time at home, and even relocating elsewhere.

“If the price went up anymore, I’d probably want to leave New York for a little while,” says 19-year-old Amanda Tooker, a Fordham University student living in the Bronx.

Every New Yorker has a threshold when it comes to spending and saving. The price elasticity of demand for mass transit is roughly 0.4. That means due to the 12.5% fare increase, demand for public transportation in the city will likely drop by 5%.

“For a lot of us, the cost of a subway ride is already too expensive,” says Dylan. “If I do stay here, I’ll have to ride my bike as much as I can to save money. Otherwise, I’ll probably cut back on food. No steaks for me.”

Story by Damian Ghigliotty

Video by James Fair and Damian Ghigliotty

View the analysis video below for a breakdown of Elasticity of Demand by Mike Mandel

Posted in Chapter 03 | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

The Economics of a Hip Hop Artist: Skyzoo

Posted by Damian on July 1, 2009

As CD sales continue to slide in the digital age, independent musicians are finding new ways to distribute their music. Total CD sales hit an all-time low of 362.6 million in 2008, down 45% from 651.1 million in 2004, according to Nielsen SoundScan. Over the same four years, digital album sales have soared from 5.5 million to 65.8 million, despite an enormous quantity of free — and often illegal — downloading.

Independent hip hop artist Gregory Skyler Taylor, better known as Skyzoo among fans, has used those changes to his advantage. In July 2007, the 26-year-old Brooklyn native released his critically acclaimed “Corner Store Classic” mixtape — a compilation of both original songs and verses recorded over popular instrumentals. He also allowed several music websites to offer all 20 tracks as a free digital download.

Doing so garnered enough attention to attract some of the biggest names in digital music — iTunes, Napster, eMusic — and Skyzoo later released an updated version of “Corner Store Classic” as a for-sale download in April 2008 with several remixes and previously unreleased songs.

“I was able to grab the attention of people who didn’t have the original version, as well as those who did, since there was enough new music on the re-release,” he says. “Putting your music out in different forms gives fans more of an incentive to follow up on you.”

Making the original mixtape took time: Skyzoo spent 2-3 days a week, spread over three months, writing and recording. Other costs included the money he spent on manufacturing and distributing CDs, which totaled $1,000-$2,000. But Skyzoo also benefited from a supportive network: he was given free access to a recording studio, and was able to get other musicians and producers to work with him for a low cost and, in some cases, no cost at all.

As an independent musician breaking through the middle ground between job security and creative control, Skyzoo has forgone working for anyone but himself since 2005. His last non-music job was a clerical position at Morgan Stanley, which could easily drive anybody out of the corporate world. Nowadays Skyzoo earns some of his money from downloads that sell on iTunes and elsewhere for $0.99 per song. But the bulk of his income comes from live concerts, including recent performances in China.

Other artists across several genres have taken similar approaches to surviving off of their music alone. Veteran indie rock group Nine Inch Nails promoted their 8th and latest album, “The Slip,” as a free 10-song download on the group’s website. In preparation for the digital release, NIN circulated a free mp3 of the lead single, “Discipline.” The mp3 contained a special text tag requesting fans to visit the site on May 5, 2008 — the day the album would become available for download. Soon after, physical copies of the album were distributed for sale.

Skyzoo sees a similar opportunity to boost demand for paid downloads and album purchases. With his own full-length album, “The Salvation,” ready for release, he has been gearing up to spread more free music over the web.

“I’m a firm believer in staying new with online marketing, live music streaming, and digital downloading,” says Skyzoo. “But I’m also a firm believer in the old. You don’t know where you’re going unless you know where you came from, so it’s always important to have posters, flyers, promotional CDs and t-shirts; physical products that help create a brand that people want to support.”

Story by Damian Ghigliotty

Video by James Fair and Damian Ghigliotty

View the analysis video below for a breakdown of Opportunity Cost by Mike Mandel

Posted in Chapter 02 | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Schedule

Posted by Mike Mandel on June 18, 2009

Starting now, we will be posting a new “news supplement” every couple of weeks. The next one: How towns are being hit by the recession. Stay tuned!

P.S. If you have any requests, let me know.

Posted in Updates | Leave a Comment »

The Basics of the Credit Crunch

Posted by Mike Mandel on March 29, 2009

[This item will soon be moved to McGraw-Hill's Connect  online homework management system, where it will be available along with a customized problem set]  
We’ve heard the term credit crunch over and over again—but what does it mean? In the simplest terms, a credit crunch means that it may be more difficult for you to get a loan for a home or for a car, and the interest rate that you have to pay may be higher. It may also be more difficult for a business to get a loan to pay for a new building, a truck, or a computer.

However, from an economic perspective, we can look a bit deeper in order to understand why a credit crunch occurs. Let’s revisit the basics of financial markets. Suppose that you go into a bank and take out a loan to buy a home or a car. Where does the bank get that money from? There are three possible sources for the funds (see figure) First, virtually all banks have depositors, who have put their money into savings accounts or into certificates of deposit. The bank can then lend that money to borrowers.

hotnewscreditcrunch_c4

A second source of funds: The bank can borrow money itself by issuing bonds to investors. That is, the bank can borrow the money and lend it out again at a higher interest rate. Many banks did that in recent years.

Finally, the third source of funds for loans is called securitization. Securitization is a fancy word for saying that the bank can make mortgage loans to home buyers, package them up into what is called a mortgage-backed security, and sell the mortgage-backed security–that is, the bundle of loans–to investors. It can do the same with other types of loans, like auto loans.

In all three of these cases, the bank is a financial intermediary. That means it helps direct money from suppliers of capital—that is, depositors and investors—to the users of capital, borrowers.

When the financial markets are working well, this flow of money from depositors and investors to borrowers is free and easy, like water flowing through a pipe. If you want a loan to buy a home or a car, you go into the bank, which checks your qualifications—do you have enough income to pay back the loan, do you have a history of paying your debts on time. Then if you are qualified, the bank offers you the loan at the going market rate.

A credit crunch occurs when the banks—the financial intermediaries—are wounded or broken in some way. Investors and depositors still have their money, but the flow of funds to borrowers is interrupted. You can think of it as being blocked, like a broken pipe.

Today, the banks have been wounded because they are absorbing enormous losses on mortgages they have made, as more and more homeowners default. Because so many of their existing loans are going bad, banks are afraid to make new loans. Instead of lending to households or businesses, banks are investing their deposits in safe government securities–that is, they are lending to the government.

In addition, it is harder to raise money to make loans.  Savers are still willing to put money into banks, because up to some level  it is guaranteed by the government.  But investors are less willing to lend money to banks, because they fear that if a bank goes out of business, they could lose their money. And securitization is tougher, too, because investors are less willing to buy loans which might go bad.

The result: Because loans are more expensive and harder to get, households buy fewer cars and homes, while businesses do less capital investment.

Posted in Chapter 13, Chapter 19 | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Fiscal Stimulus and Construction Workers

Posted by Mike Mandel on March 18, 2009

 
It’s a tough time to be a construction worker. The unemployment rate in the industry, as of February 2009, was a stunning 21%, up from 11% a year ago. Homebuilding has come to a standstill, and there are few new office buildings being started.

But there is one part of construction which is about to get a boost—and that’s highway and bridge construction. The fiscal stimulus bill passed by Congress and signed by President Obama in February had $27.5 billion in funds for fixing and expanding highways and bridges. On March 3 the Transportation Department began doling out these funds to states.

(To see how much highway fiscal stimulus money your state got, take a look here. If you live in or near a large city, this list may tell you how much is going to your area.)

These funds translate into jobs. American Infrastructure is a Pennsylvania-based highway construction contractor, which got the very first contract from the federal stimulus package (to resurface a highway in Maryland). So far they’ve called back about 50 of the 350 people they’ve had to lay off since October, says Mark Compton, who handles public relations for the company. But they have made a bid for work in Pennsylvania—that is, offered a price for doing the construction–and hope to get the contract soon, with projects in Virginia and Delaware to follow. These contracts would allow them to make big dent in layoffs. One employee who was rehired said, “When I was laid off my family survived, now that I’m working, we live.”

That means construction firms that specialize in highway and bridge construction are calling back laid-off workers, and in some cases actually advertising for more. For example, constructor contractors in Iowa have set up a online jobs listing here.

This is good news for workers in the highway and bridge construction business. Not only are jobs being created, but wages are going up for these kinds of jobs. In the “heavy and civil engineering construction industry”—a category which includes highway and bridge construction, hourly wages have risen by 4.9% over the past year.

By comparison, for workers in the residential construction industry, wages have only risen by 2.1% over the past year. The chart below shows how wage growth in these industries has changed over time.


construction-wages_28452_image001

These figures are based on 12-month moving averages.

But suppose you are one of the many unemployed construction workers who used to build homes. The question is: How do you get a well-paid job at one of these new highway and bridge projects—say, operating a $70,000 asphalt paver? There are two problems with moving over from homebuilding to highway construction. First, state governments are being encouraged to get construction moving as quickly as possible, in order to generate jobs. That means construction firms are more likely to hire workers who can get to work right away—who already have experience operating heavy equipment like bulldozers and pavers (which are the machines which spread the asphalt or other road material on the highway). “We have so many experienced workers sitting on the bench,” says Compton of American Infrastructure.

Second, it’s expensive and time-consuming to get experience operating heavy equipment. Either you can get ‘on-the-job’ training, or you can go to a special “heavy equipment” school. For example, West Coast Training in Woodland, Washington, offers an 8 week course—320 hours–in operating heavy equipment such as bulldozes, graders, and backhoes. The total cost of the course is a bit over $7000, but unemployed workers can sometimes get money for retraining from the government.

But the training school has not yet seen an increase in students, says Criss Jaeger of West Coast. They have “high anticipation” that the highway stimulus will boost demand for training, but so far it has not. The bottom line: For now, it looks like the stimulus bill is going to help a limited number of construction workers.

Reported by Judy Scherer

 

Posted in Chapter 11 | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »