Understanding the Economy

Economic news supplements and videos to accompany 'Economics:The Basics' by Michael Mandel

Archive for March, 2009

The Basics of the Credit Crunch

Posted by Mike Mandel on March 29, 2009

[This item will soon be moved to McGraw-Hill's Connect online homework management system, where it will be available along with a customized problem set]

We’ve heard the term credit crunch over and over again—but what does it mean? In the simplest terms, a credit crunch means that it may be more difficult for you to get a loan for a home or for a car, and the interest rate that you have to pay may be higher. It may also be more difficult for a business to get a loan to pay for a new building, a truck, or a computer.

However, from an economic perspective, we can look a bit deeper in order to understand why a credit crunch occurs. Let’s revisit the basics of financial markets. Suppose that you go into a bank and take out a loan to buy a home or a car. Where does the bank get that money from? There are three possible sources for the funds (see figure) First, virtually all banks have depositors, who have put their money into savings accounts or into certificates of deposit. The bank can then lend that money to borrowers.

hotnewscreditcrunch_c4

A second source of funds: The bank can borrow money itself by issuing bonds to investors. That is, the bank can borrow the money and lend it out again at a higher interest rate. Many banks did that in recent years.

Finally, the third source of funds for loans is called securitization. Securitization is a fancy word for saying that the bank can make mortgage loans to home buyers, package them up into what is called a mortgage-backed security, and sell the mortgage-backed security–that is, the bundle of loans–to investors. It can do the same with other types of loans, like auto loans.

In all three of these cases, the bank is a financial intermediary. That means it helps direct money from suppliers of capital—that is, depositors and investors—to the users of capital, borrowers.

When the financial markets are working well, this flow of money from depositors and investors to borrowers is free and easy, like water flowing through a pipe. If you want a loan to buy a home or a car, you go into the bank, which checks your qualifications—do you have enough income to pay back the loan, do you have a history of paying your debts on time. Then if you are qualified, the bank offers you the loan at the going market rate.

A credit crunch occurs when the banks—the financial intermediaries—are wounded or broken in some way. Investors and depositors still have their money, but the flow of funds to borrowers is interrupted. You can think of it as being blocked, like a broken pipe.

Today, the banks have been wounded because they are absorbing enormous losses on mortgages they have made, as more and more homeowners default. Because so many of their existing loans are going bad, banks are afraid to make new loans. Instead of lending to households or businesses, banks are investing their deposits in safe government securities–that is, they are lending to the government.

In addition, it is harder to raise money to make loans.  Savers are still willing to put money into banks, because up to some level  it is guaranteed by the government.  But investors are less willing to lend money to banks, because they fear that if a bank goes out of business, they could lose their money. And securitization is tougher, too, because investors are less willing to buy loans which might go bad.

The result: Because loans are more expensive and harder to get, households buy fewer cars and homes, while businesses do less capital investment.

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Fiscal Stimulus and Construction Workers

Posted by Mike Mandel on March 18, 2009

 
It’s a tough time to be a construction worker. The unemployment rate in the industry, as of February 2009, was a stunning 21%, up from 11% a year ago. Homebuilding has come to a standstill, and there are few new office buildings being started.

But there is one part of construction which is about to get a boost—and that’s highway and bridge construction. The fiscal stimulus bill passed by Congress and signed by President Obama in February had $27.5 billion in funds for fixing and expanding highways and bridges. On March 3 the Transportation Department began doling out these funds to states.

(To see how much highway fiscal stimulus money your state got, take a look here. If you live in or near a large city, this list may tell you how much is going to your area.)

These funds translate into jobs. American Infrastructure is a Pennsylvania-based highway construction contractor, which got the very first contract from the federal stimulus package (to resurface a highway in Maryland). So far they’ve called back about 50 of the 350 people they’ve had to lay off since October, says Mark Compton, who handles public relations for the company. But they have made a bid for work in Pennsylvania—that is, offered a price for doing the construction–and hope to get the contract soon, with projects in Virginia and Delaware to follow. These contracts would allow them to make big dent in layoffs. One employee who was rehired said, “When I was laid off my family survived, now that I’m working, we live.”

That means construction firms that specialize in highway and bridge construction are calling back laid-off workers, and in some cases actually advertising for more. For example, constructor contractors in Iowa have set up a online jobs listing here.

This is good news for workers in the highway and bridge construction business. Not only are jobs being created, but wages are going up for these kinds of jobs. In the “heavy and civil engineering construction industry”—a category which includes highway and bridge construction, hourly wages have risen by 4.9% over the past year.

By comparison, for workers in the residential construction industry, wages have only risen by 2.1% over the past year. The chart below shows how wage growth in these industries has changed over time.


construction-wages_28452_image001

These figures are based on 12-month moving averages.

But suppose you are one of the many unemployed construction workers who used to build homes. The question is: How do you get a well-paid job at one of these new highway and bridge projects—say, operating a $70,000 asphalt paver? There are two problems with moving over from homebuilding to highway construction. First, state governments are being encouraged to get construction moving as quickly as possible, in order to generate jobs. That means construction firms are more likely to hire workers who can get to work right away—who already have experience operating heavy equipment like bulldozers and pavers (which are the machines which spread the asphalt or other road material on the highway). “We have so many experienced workers sitting on the bench,” says Compton of American Infrastructure.

Second, it’s expensive and time-consuming to get experience operating heavy equipment. Either you can get ‘on-the-job’ training, or you can go to a special “heavy equipment” school. For example, West Coast Training in Woodland, Washington, offers an 8 week course—320 hours–in operating heavy equipment such as bulldozes, graders, and backhoes. The total cost of the course is a bit over $7000, but unemployed workers can sometimes get money for retraining from the government.

But the training school has not yet seen an increase in students, says Criss Jaeger of West Coast. They have “high anticipation” that the highway stimulus will boost demand for training, but so far it has not. The bottom line: For now, it looks like the stimulus bill is going to help a limited number of construction workers.

Reported by Judy Scherer

 

Posted in Chapter 11 | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Paying for Retirement

Posted by Judy Scherer on March 18, 2009

 
For many people, putting together the resources needed for retirement is not simple. Take Eleanor, an 81-year-old who had worked for 20 years as a researcher for a nonprofit consulting firm. She raised two daughters and a son with her husband, who died in 1981. Since then, she has lived alone, most recently in a college town in Ohio, near one of her daughters.

About to retire at 63 in 1991, Eleanor needed to ensure that she had enough resources to support her for the rest of her life. She had worked long enough at her non-profit employer, which qualified her for a defined benefit plan. However, that plan by itself—which paid out  $500 per month every year–was too small to live on. Her late husband had a defined contribution plan from his work that is adjusted for inflation each year. But she knew that even these two pensions, plus social security payments from the government, were insufficient to support her and her serious interests.

Eleanor assessed her situation.  In addition to the pensions and social security mentioned above, she had regularly contributed to a 401(k) account partly matched by her company and an IRA (‘Individual Retirement Account’) she had opened earlier. An IRA provides tax breaks to individuals who save towards retirement. In addition, she had the value of her home. She decided to continue working part-time for a few years after retiring because she enjoyed the work and the additional money. Much of her financial plan was formulated in conjunction with an independent fee-only certified financial planner.

Eleanor is pleased with the choices she’s made. About five years ago, she sold her home to pay the entry fee for an apartment in a continuing care retirement community. In addition to her living space, the retirement community provides her a daily meal and light housekeeping, plus some coverage of medical costs not covered by Medicare or her secondary medical insurance.

An alert and healthy woman, Eleanor has managed her finances to enable her to live comfortably and travel both in the U.S. and around the world. Between her travels on business and with family, church and photo groups, she has covered all fifty states. A serious amateur photographer, she has traveled to Ecuador, the Galapagos Islands and Alaska and plans to spend about two weeks in Italy this coming year. In the past, she and her camera have spanned the globe from Bolivia to Mongolia to South Africa and the former Soviet Union.

Reported and written by Judy Scherer
 

Posted in Chapter 20 | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »