Understanding the Economy

Economic news supplements and videos to accompany 'Economics:The Basics' by Michael Mandel

Archive for the ‘Chapter 03’ Category

Number of the Week: Rents Finally Start Falling

Posted by Mike Mandel on August 24, 2009

If you own your own home, my sympathies—it’s tough to be you these days. Your house is probably worth 30-40% less than a few years ago. Your real estate taxes are likely going up, there’s a big ‘foreclosed’ sign on the house across the street, and you can’t sell your house even if you want to.

But suppose you are a tenant, part of one of those 35 million household who pay rent each month to landlords. Guess what? Good news for you–average rents in urban areas actually went down in July, for the first time in recent record (chart). That’s according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government agency in charge of tracking all prices in the U.S.

Rent inflation, at annual rates

Rent inflation, at annual rates

Now, the monthly decline was very small, only -0.03%. If rents continue to fall at the same rate for a year, that would total up to a -0.4% decline To put it another way, if you are paying $1000 a month for the crummy one-bedroom apartment, this decline means that you might end up paying $4 less each month…not much of a change.

But even small declines matter, especially since renters tend to be young, or poor, or both.. About 40% of renters are under the age of 35, for example, making every penny count.

Actually, the real surprise is how long it took for rents to start dropping. Home prices hit their peak in mid-2006 and since then have fallen more than 30%. By comparison, averager rents for tenants have increased roughly 10% over the same stretch. Part of the reason is that most apartment leases are signed for a year or more, which may include some increases already built into the agreement. These help push up the average rent.

But there are demand and supply factors which have also kept rents rising. When the housing bust hit, home mortgages became harder to get. Lenders tightened up, requiring bigger downpayments. And many people lost their homes because they couldn’t pay their mortgages.

As a result, quite a few people who would have wanted to buy homes were forced into the rental market. In effect, the demand curve for rental housing may have shifted to the right. This kept rents rising, and the number of renters going up. For example, over the past year, the number of renters rose by about 1 million, even as the number of homeowners fell (chart).

rent_6023_image001

In addition, real estate developers have been mostly focused on building homes for sale, not for rent. Over the past year, there were roughly 960,000 new housing units completed, according to the Census Bureau. Out of those, about 520,000 were intended for sale, and only 440,000 intended for rent—not enough to keep up with all the new renters.

Now, eventually the market takes care of this imbalance. Renters start buying cheap houses. Owners of homes that they cannot sell start renting them instead. And builders start putting up apartment houses rather than giant one-family mansions.

How long and how far will rents drop? There’s no way to tell right now—but this is a darn good time to be a tenant.

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The Economics of a Subway Fare Hike

Posted by Damian on July 2, 2009

Dylan Rogers, a 29-year-old Jeweler from South Carolina, has become frustrated with the cost of living in New York City. As a commuter who travels over 10 miles from Brooklyn to Manhattan and back on a regular basis, Dylan spends several hundred dollars a year on the subway alone — more than most people living in other parts of the country pay for gas.

So, when the government agency that runs the city’s subways and buses — The MTA — proposed raising the price of a single ride from $2.00 to $2.50 in March 2009, Dylan considered moving elsewhere.

“I understand they need to make money to keep the trains moving,” he says. “But it really affects middle-class workers like myself. We’re what drives New York.”

The 44-year-old Metropolitan Transportation Authority announced its proposal as the best way to cover a $1.2 billion deficit from rising maintenance costs. But after hearing the complaints of commuters throughout the city, the agency scaled the fare hike down from $2.50 to $2.25, which went into effect on June 28, 2009.

In New York City, 7.4 million people use public transportation on an average weekday. That 12.5% increase in the price of a single subway or bus ride will still cost the majority of commuters at least $100 dollars more each year.

“On average I take about 10 round trips a week on the subway,” says Grady Walker, a 30-year-old musician who travels all around the city for rehearsals and gigs. At that rate, the new fare will cost him an additional $2.50 a week.

And with other costs of living going up at the same time, many subway riders like Dylan and Grady have begun to weigh the price of public transportation against the alternatives: walking, driving, spending more time at home, and even relocating elsewhere.

“If the price went up anymore, I’d probably want to leave New York for a little while,” says 19-year-old Amanda Tooker, a Fordham University student living in the Bronx.

Every New Yorker has a threshold when it comes to spending and saving. The price elasticity of demand for mass transit is roughly 0.4. That means due to the 12.5% fare increase, demand for public transportation in the city will likely drop by 5%.

“For a lot of us, the cost of a subway ride is already too expensive,” says Dylan. “If I do stay here, I’ll have to ride my bike as much as I can to save money. Otherwise, I’ll probably cut back on food. No steaks for me.”

Story by Damian Ghigliotty

Video by James Fair and Damian Ghigliotty

View the analysis video below for a breakdown of Elasticity of Demand by Mike Mandel

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